That time of the month…..
Apologies for missing last month’s performance report. Too many things happening which were getting in the way of my “retired” life. For a period of time there, it almost seemed like I was back on the treadmill.
The things that kept me busy:
- Opening Koalla Midas Fund to invest in multiple algorithmic strategies; some of them mine, others third-party to get a better return-risk profile. That is off to a good start. May-end marks the first full month of the fund.
- Adding another day-trading strategy to the mix. Added RP – Innovation ETF’s to the mix. This one is more day-trading and does around a round trip trade every 2 days. Going back to my analogy of lanes and cars, this is like the race car, lots of transactions and tries to weave in and out of traffic.
- Changed the subscription model from an annual model to a monthly model. This was necessitated because of the potential scale coming in from collaborating with our affiliate Right-Choice. For existing “annual” customers, the current model will continue. They do have the option of switching to the monthly model if they would so desire.
- Visiting Colorado and getting to “high” grounds in the Sand Dunes near Colorado Springs!! Read between the lines if you will…..interpretation is subjective…..:-)
- And of course answering questions on when the models are going to perform, out-perform, draw-downs etc.
2020 – 57.5%
YTD for 2021 – We are up by around 3.1% in non-IRA accounts
For March, we were up by 3.13% and May, we were flat with just 0.09% for non-IRA accounts
A number of new subscribers joining do not have the size of the account required to trade in futures, so keeping that in mind, the recommendation on the distribution has also changed from June onwards to 20:40:40 across RP Platinum: RP Swing: RP Innovation
A few words about RP Innovation. This strategy essentially does swing and day trading in Innovation ETF’s like ARKK, ARKW and uses bond ETF’s like IEF and TLT as the risk-off instruments. It also has a volatility trading component similar to RP Swing to give it the extra horse-power.
This is what the performance expectation looks like across the three RP strategies now. Remember that all three strategies do not invest in individual stocks, do not short, do not trade in options. They only trade in ETFs that represent stocks, bonds, gold, crypto and volatility. The speed at which they change positions between assets (lanes) is what differentiates one strategy from another.
2021 Performance Statistics
Monthly Performance RP – Platinum
Monthly Performance RP – Swing
Monthly Performance RP – Innovation
The annual returns are cumulative, not additive. You need to multiply the returns of each month and not add them up.
The three models combined seems to provide for a better return-risk profile since the diversification is now not just on lanes (by diversifying across stocks, bonds, gold and bitcoin) but also on the vehicle being used to drive on those lanes. (the min-van, the sports car and the racing car). If you still don’t understand what I am talking about, please see this video I referred to earlier in a previous blog post.
Weather Conditions and Looking Forward
Honestly of the three models now, the RP Platinum is the only model that seems to care about fundamentals and weather conditions and it continue to be bearish. For June, the allocation is now completely into bonds and gold. It has reduced cash in the account as well to 0%.
The RP Swing model is mildly bullish on stocks for the next few weeks, but is ready to make a change if the situation demands it. It went down this last month primarily because of its exposure to Crypto. The model however continues to be bullish on crypto for the medium term.
The RP Innovation model does not care and is confident in its ability to weave around the traffic when the traffic jam (read market crash) does come.
To clients who joined in the last couple of months: Welcome onboard. As the existing clients can attest to it, this can be quite a roller coaster ride and the associated emotions. If you can tolerate it, you will make money. And it does take quite a bit of patience and trust.
As I mentioned in the webinar, let your fear dictate your investment decisions rather than greed. The only way you can lose money by investing in stocks, bonds, gold is to let your emotions take control over your investment decisions. I am not promising money every month. All these models will go down by 15-25% multiple times across years….and it has no correlation with the stock market going up or down. It is just the way any investment works….goes up and down…as long as the ups and more than the downs, you will make money.
Getting in when it is up and getting off when it is down is a sure fire way of not making money.
